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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.79x
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
2.40x
$14,253,537 vol

Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary?

Ben Ferguson
Ben Ferguson
4.73x
Scott Jennings
Scott Jennings
8.56x
$13,272,440 vol

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Jan 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Feb 1, 2027
1.67x
$85,488 vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Feb 1, 2027
2.52x
$4,557,934 vol

Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next?

Howard Lutnick
Howard Lutnick
1.86x
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
5.25x
$64,330 vol

Pete Hegseth departure announced?

Before Jan 1, 2027
4.51x
Before Dec 25, 2026
4.73x
$592,120 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Dan Caine
Dan Caine
1.90x
Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy
1.79x
$15,296 vol

Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.90x
Before Oct 1, 2027
1.60x
$184,529 vol

Who will leave the Trump administration before July?

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
1.97x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
1.57x
$10,905 vol

When will Trump’s next Press Secretary be announced?

Before Dec 4, 2026
1.73x
Before Dec 15, 2026
1.44x
$107,148 vol

Who will be Trump’s next Secretary of State?

Bill Hagerty
Bill Hagerty
2.01x
No other person
No other person
2.46x
$12,118 vol

RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027
1.62x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.48x
$10,096 vol

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Adam Telle
Adam Telle
3.80x
Sean Parnell
Sean Parnell
4.31x
$13,893 vol

Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?

Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
Before Jan 1, 2027
4.31x
$264,650 vol

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.05x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.60x
$2,886,633 vol

Stephen Miller out as White House Chief of Staff?

Before Jan 1, 2028
1.83x
Before Jul 1, 2027
2.29x
$3,420 vol

Scott Bessent announces departure as Secretary of the Treasury?

Before Oct 1, 2027
1.93x
Before Jan 1, 2028
1.55x
$925 vol

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
1.55x
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
5.56x
$34,862 vol

How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired this year?

0
1.29x
1
4.73x
$149,731 vol

Who will be Trump’s next Secretary of Defense?

No other person
No other person
3.29x
Dan Sullivan
Dan Sullivan
2.98x
$69,816 vol

Kash Patel departure announced?

Yes
18.8x
No
1.04x
$317,203 vol

Will Laura Loomer join the Trump administration this year?

Yes
6.74x
No
1.07x
$898 vol

Will the new Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee?

Before Apr 1, 2027
2.24x
Before Jul 1, 2027
1.34x
$40 vol

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

At least 2
1.57x
At least 3
2.98x
$771 vol