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Politics odds and guides

Government shutdown odds

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.07x
$1,103,676 vol

How low will Trump’s approval rating get before 2027?

Below 36%
1.65x
Below 35.5%
2.34x
$559,611 vol

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
1.83x
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
3.66x
$56,802 vol

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or narrowed?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.05x
$386,428 vol

MAGA Inc. 2026 total disbursements?

Above 400 million dollars
1.60x
Above 500 million dollars
2.52x
$10,432 vol

How low will Trump’s approval rating get during his term?

Below 30%
2.19x
Below 31%
1.57x
$1,546 vol

Will Trump publicly criticize JD Vance?

Before Jul 1, 2027
1.76x
Before Apr 1, 2027
2.24x
$1,369 vol

How high will Trump’s approval rating get before 2027?

Above 44%
93.5x
Above 45%
31.2x
$181,103 vol

Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?

Yes
6.74x
No
1.09x
$28,924 vol

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

Below 7.25
2.34x
Below 7.50
1.40x
$115,386 vol