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Economics odds and guides

Fed rate odds for every FOMC meeting

Recession next year?

Yes
4.31x
No
1.25x
$1,013,892 vol

Raleigh-Durham International Airport passengers this year

Above 15.75 million
1.14x
Above 16.00 million
7.25x
$122,394 vol

Arkansas broiler production this year

Above 8.0 billion pounds
4.13x
Above 7.8 billion pounds
1.15x
$101,516 vol

New Hampshire maple syrup production next year

Above 150,000 gallons
2.09x
Above 140,000 gallons
1.38x
$178,429 vol

Will Trump bring back manufacturing?

Yes
5.25x
No
1.16x
$29,642 vol

Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.05x
$233,111 vol

Will Boise Airport set a new passenger record this year?

Yes
1.18x
No
4.98x
$28,066 vol

Will Nebraska cattle on feed rise YoY?

Yes
3.52x
No
1.26x
$18,067 vol

Vermont maple syrup production next year

Above 3.1 million gallons
1.97x
Above 3.0 million gallons
1.67x
$80,058 vol

Nebraska corn yield this year

Above 185 bu/acre
2.59x
Above 180 bu/acre
1.29x
$190,687 vol

Mississippi cotton production next year

Above 900,000 bales
1.93x
Above 800,000 bales
1.50x
$70,482 vol

How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?

At least 2 trillion
46.8x
At least 250 billion
46.8x
$303,015 vol

US private data center construction spending in October

Above $107.5B
1.76x
Above $105.0B
1.42x
$417 vol

US credit rating downgrade this year?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.01x
$80,165 vol

Who will be the world’s second trillionaire?

Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg
3.96x
Jeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos
4.73x
$45,651 vol

Recession this year?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.02x
$4,192,277 vol

Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration

$47.5 trillion
1.60x
$50 trillion
3.40x
$121,186 vol

How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?

More than $1.4 trillion
15.6x
More than $1.7 trillion
23.4x
$1,416,695 vol

Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026

At least $4.5 billion
3.08x
At least $4.0 billion
1.14x
$27,769 vol

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

Yes
1.10x
No
8.56x
$14,317 vol

South Dakota corn yield this year

Above 150 bu/acre
1.65x
Above 155 bu/acre
2.59x
$541,264 vol

Wisconsin total milk production this year

Above 33.50 billion pounds
2.66x
Above 33.00 billion pounds
1.04x
$128,171 vol

Who will be the three wealthiest people in the world?

Larry Page
1.18x
Sergey Brin
4.98x
$49,244 vol

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Yes
2.89x
No
1.40x
$183,237 vol