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Economics

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Hub

Fed

US FED

Fed decision in July?

Fed maintains rate
1.23x
Hike 25bps
4.73x
$7,356,171 vol5 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.28x
Exactly 1 cut
4.98x
$5,384,070 vol21 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
4.31x
No
1.26x
$592,214 vol1 market
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.79x
Before July 2027
1.55x
$3,122,715 vol3 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after July meeting?

Above 3.75%
4.73x
Above 3.50%
1.02x
$387,281 vol11 markets
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.14x
1 cuts
13.4x
$357,528 vol5 markets
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.20%
1.62x
Above 4.30%
2.34x
$6,036 vol16 markets
Fed

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?

Yes
1.12x
No
5.90x
$2,624 vol1 market
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
11.7x
No
1.07x
$411,357 vol1 market
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

0
1.65x
1
3.66x
$6,664 vol5 markets
Fed

How many IMF posts on X this week?

16-20
2.89x
21-25
1.57x
$6,252 vol6 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
8.56x
No
1.08x
$148,198 vol1 market
Fed

How many Fed posts on X this week?

15-17
1.76x
<9
1.26x
$4,497 vol6 markets
Fed

How many WEF posts on X this week?

35-49
4.13x
50-74
7.85x
$3,599 vol6 markets
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 0
2.52x
Exactly 1
2.40x
$32,515 vol13 markets
Fed

S&P 500 move on July FOMC day?

At least 1.00%
2.40x
At least 0.75%
1.55x
$10,416 vol12 markets
US FED

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0
2.01x
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0
2.29x
$4,595 vol4 markets
Fed

Will the July 2026 FOMC statement include forward guidance?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.02x
$2,203 vol1 market
Fed

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

At least 10bps
1.70x
At least 8bps
1.48x
$1,693 vol10 markets
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.02x
$50,077 vol1 market
US FED

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

Beth Hammack
5.90x
Lisa Cook
10.4x
$6,785 vol12 markets
Fed

US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?

At least 0.80%
1.67x
At least 1.20%
3.29x
$7,206 vol10 markets
Fed

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Above 3.8%
1.73x
Above 3.9%
2.59x
$332 vol12 markets
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 3.75%
1.01x
Above 4.25%
1.01x
$0 vol3 markets