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Fed

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US FED

Fed decision in September?

Hike 25bps
1.62x
Fed maintains rate
2.40x
$24,783,645 vol5 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.00%
1.79x
Above 3.75%
1.67x
$21,085 vol21 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.26x
Before July 2027
1.16x
$5,312,142 vol3 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after September meeting?

Above 3.75%
1.57x
Above 4.00%
46.8x
$682,087 vol11 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.12x
Exactly 1 cut
15.6x
$7,892,131 vol21 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
6.74x
No
1.14x
$1,057,867 vol1 market
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 1
1.90x
Exactly 0
3.96x
$65,066 vol13 markets
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

3
2.73x
0
5.90x
$77,259 vol6 markets
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.05x
1 cuts
23.4x
$447,110 vol5 markets
US FED

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
2.24x
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
2.52x
$51,364 vol6 markets
US FED

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

Beth Hammack
1.73x
Neel Kashkari
2.40x
$30,055 vol12 markets
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.04x
$586,551 vol1 market
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 3.75%
1.79x
Above 5.00%
10.4x
$2,423 vol4 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
11.7x
No
1.04x
$174,932 vol1 market
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
93.5x
No
--
$55,608 vol1 market
Economics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.22x
Before Jan 1, 2030
7.85x
$7,432 vol5 markets
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.30%
1.73x
Above 4.20%
1.26x
$14,669 vol16 markets
Fed

SOFR for August 31, 2026

3.60% or Below
7.85x
Exactly 3.61%
6.74x
$0 vol7 markets
Economics

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender
2.19x
David Altig
3.52x
$23 vol5 markets
Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted
3.29x
Trimmed Mean Emphasized
4.98x
$39,929 vol5 markets
Economics

Will the Fed schedule fewer than eight policy meetings a year?

Yes
2.01x
No
1.60x
$6,149 vol1 market
Fed

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?

Yes
1.08x
No
5.90x
$7,415 vol1 market
Fed

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Above 3.8%
1.62x
Above 3.9%
2.73x
$1,815 vol12 markets
Fed

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.8 trillion
1.93x
Above $6.9 trillion
2.59x
$3,991 vol12 markets