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Fed

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US FED

Fed decision in September?

Hike 25bps
1.23x
Fed maintains rate
4.73x
$61,148,490 vol5 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.00%
1.83x
Above 4.25%
2.24x
$36,998 vol21 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.08x
Exactly 1 cut
13.4x
$8,990,173 vol21 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.13x
Before July 2027
1.10x
$6,457,261 vol3 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after September meeting?

Above 3.75%
1.22x
Above 4.25%
93.5x
$2,004,971 vol11 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.08x
$1,204,619 vol1 market
US FED

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
1.52x
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
3.52x
$130,822 vol6 markets
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

0
3.40x
1
3.80x
$183,510 vol6 markets
US FED

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

Christopher Waller
1.46x
Lorie Logan
3.96x
$49,441 vol12 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.06x
$177,704 vol1 market
Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted
2.89x
Reserve President Rejected
6.29x
$43,235 vol5 markets
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 1
2.40x
Exactly 2
2.24x
$76,931 vol13 markets
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.60%
1.76x
Above 4.70%
3.40x
$25,922 vol16 markets
Fed

SOFR for September 11, 2026

Exactly 3.62%
2.46x
Exactly 3.63%
3.52x
$1,812 vol7 markets
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.03x
$598,398 vol1 market
Fed

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?

Yes
1.04x
No
9.41x
$8,827 vol1 market
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
--
$56,708 vol1 market
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.05x
1 cuts
31.2x
$454,047 vol5 markets
Economics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.20x
Before Jan 1, 2030
6.29x
$7,631 vol5 markets
Economics

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender
2.19x
David Altig
3.52x
$23 vol5 markets
Economics

Will the Fed schedule fewer than eight policy meetings a year?

Yes
2.05x
No
1.57x
$6,703 vol1 market
Fed

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Above 3.9%
1.29x
Above 4.0%
1.29x
$2,611 vol12 markets
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 3.75%
1.26x
Above 4.25%
7.25x
$3,473 vol4 markets
Fed

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.8 trillion
1.79x
Above $6.9 trillion
2.40x
$4,445 vol12 markets