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Economics

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Fed

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US FED

Fed decision in September?

Fed maintains rate
1.67x
Hike 25bps
2.24x
$5,730,537 vol5 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.00%
2.01x
Above 3.75%
1.55x
$9,346 vol21 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.67x
Before July 2027
1.31x
$4,397,906 vol3 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after September meeting?

Above 3.75%
2.24x
Above 4.00%
93.5x
$368,365 vol11 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.14x
Exactly 1 cut
7.85x
$6,910,960 vol21 markets
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.06x
$524,850 vol1 market
Economics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.29x
Before Jan 1, 2030
7.25x
$6,750 vol5 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
5.90x
No
1.18x
$929,385 vol1 market
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 0
2.29x
Exactly 1
2.46x
$53,352 vol13 markets
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.05x
1 cuts
13.4x
$430,053 vol5 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
10.4x
No
1.05x
$172,459 vol1 market
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

0
3.18x
3
2.98x
$19,537 vol5 markets
Economics

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
1.83x
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
2.98x
$17,687 vol6 markets
Economics

Will the Fed schedule fewer than eight policy meetings a year?

Yes
1.90x
No
1.83x
$4,499 vol1 market
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
1.01x
$54,997 vol1 market
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.30%
1.83x
Above 4.20%
1.40x
$13,040 vol16 markets
Fed

SOFR up or down for August 11, 2026?

Yes
1.55x
No
1.19x
$0 vol1 market
Economics

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender
2.29x
David Altig
3.80x
$23 vol5 markets
Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted
2.81x
Trimmed Mean Emphasized
4.73x
$36,157 vol5 markets
US FED

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

Beth Hammack
1.93x
Neel Kashkari
2.29x
$18,901 vol12 markets
Fed

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?

Yes
1.10x
No
7.25x
$6,400 vol1 market
Fed

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Above 3.8%
1.65x
Above 3.9%
2.81x
$1,348 vol12 markets
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.25%
9.41x
Above 3.75%
1.22x
$1,397 vol3 markets
Fed

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.8 trillion
1.97x
Above $6.9 trillion
2.66x
$2,987 vol12 markets