Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Begins in 209 days · Dec 31, 10:00pm EST
Chance
Exactly 0 cuts
0 bps
69.8%
â–² 6.4
Exactly 0 cuts
0 bps
69.8%
â–² 6.4
Exactly 1 cut
25 bps
23%
â–² 4.1
Exactly 1 cut
25 bps
23%
â–² 4.1
Exactly 2 cuts
50 bps
7.9%
â–¼ 2.9
Exactly 2 cuts
50 bps
7.9%
â–¼ 2.9
More markets
Market Rules
Exactly 0 cuts
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
Timeline and payout
Market openSep 29, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesDec 31, 2026 · 11:59pm EST
Projected payoutJan 1, 2027 · 12:07am EST
SeriesKXRATECUTCOUNT
EventKXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31
MarketKXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
After two years of multiple interest rate hikes by the FOMC, December's 2023 meeting implied that there may be a reversal going into 2024. Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That's less than what the market had been pricing, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. The central bank's post-meeting statement noted that 'inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated,' which is a change from the usual sentence simply stating that 'inflation remains elevated.'