Number of Fed rate changes 2026 Odds & Predictions
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
Begins in 206 days · Dec 31, 10:00pm EST
Chance
Exactly 0
51%
▲ 7
Exactly 0
51%
▲ 7
Exactly 1
32.8%
▼ 0.2
Exactly 1
32.8%
▼ 0.2
Exactly 2
12.8%
▼ 8.2
Exactly 2
12.8%
▼ 8.2
10 more
Market Rules
Exactly 0
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 26, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59pm EST.
SeriesKXFEDCHGCOUNT
EventKXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01
MarketKXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.