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Economics odds and guides

Fed rate odds for every FOMC meeting

Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average this year

Above 84,000 jobs
2.29x
Above 83,000 jobs
1.13x
$821,734 vol

Wisconsin manufacturing employment average this year

Above 457,500 jobs
2.59x
Above 455,000 jobs
1.26x
$303,653 vol

Visitors to Florida this year

Above 142 million
2.46x
Above 140 million
1.23x
$355,005 vol

Unemployment in November

Above 4.1%
2.14x
Above 4.0%
1.22x
$91,583 vol

TSA avg check-ins from Nov 9 to 15, 2026?

Above 2.25 million
1.46x
Above 2.3 million
6.29x
$37,021 vol

Pennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment this year

Above 555,000 jobs
1.73x
Above 560,000 jobs
11.7x
$229,994 vol

New River Gorge recreation visits this year

Above 2.1 million
4.31x
Above 2.0 million
1.19x
$206,935 vol

TSA passenger screenings on Nov 14, 2026

At least 1,800,000 passengers
1.46x
At least 1,900,000 passengers
2.52x
$2,392 vol

Unemployment rate in November?

Exactly 4.1%
3.08x
Exactly 4.2%
2.89x
$19,971 vol

Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 7, 2026

At least 1700K
1.60x
At least 1710K
2.40x
$8,280 vol

Jobs numbers this month?

Above 90,000
1.90x
Above 80,000
1.65x
$17,113 vol

South Africa unemployment rate in Q4

Above 33.5%
1.97x
Above 33.0%
1.42x
$1,698 vol

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 14, 2026

At least 200,000
2.46x
At least 195,000
1.52x
$6,868 vol

US retail sales in October

Above 0.2%
1.50x
Above 0.0%
1.26x
$5,253 vol

Will New Hampshire alpine skier visits rise YoY?

Yes
5.56x
No
1.18x
$16,232 vol

Rhode Island commercial quahog landings this year

Above 250,000 meat pounds
1.83x
Above 280,000 meat pounds
3.08x
$111,689 vol

South Carolina ports total container volume this year

Above 2.4 million TEUs
2.14x
Above 2.5 million TEUs
9.41x
$80,290 vol

Will wage satisfaction hit a new low this year?

Yes
7.85x
No
1.04x
$2,326 vol

Will youth unemployment fall below 7.5% this year?

Yes
7.25x
No
1.08x
$25,117 vol

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in November 2026?

Above 4.1 million
2.66x
Above 4 million
1.09x
$165 vol

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Overheating
1.46x
Soft landing
2.98x
$221,527 vol

Hawaii total visitor arrivals this year

Above 9.6 million
1.29x
Above 9.8 million
6.29x
$57,009 vol

Port of New York and New Jersey container volume this year

Above 8.9 million TEUs
1.70x
Above 9.0 million TEUs
5.25x
$296,950 vol

Port of Savannah container volume this year

Above 5.8 million TEUs
2.05x
Above 5.6 million TEUs
1.07x
$54,396 vol