State of the economy at the end of 2026
State of the economy at the end of 2026
Begins in 213 days · Jan 13, 6:00am EST
Chance
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
50.2%
▲ 10.2
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
50.2%
▲ 10.2
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
25.3%
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
25.3%
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
20%
▼ 8
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
20%
▼ 8
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
5.9%
▼ 1.4
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
5.9%
▼ 1.4
Market Rules
Overheating
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED CPIAUCSL and FRED UNRATE.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 25, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesJan 13, 2027 · 8:25am EST
Projected payoutJan 13, 2027 · 10:55am EST
SeriesKXECONPATH
EventKXECONPATH-26
MarketKXECONPATH-26-OHEAT
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The equilibrium state of the US economy is up to debate since covid started and stimulus starting flowing in. Stagflation, a challenging mix of high inflation and unemployment, poses complex challenges. A ‘soft landing' scenario is ideal, where the economy slows without a recession, this entails low inflation and low unemployment. Policymakers must balance trade-offs.