State of the economy at the end of 2026
State of the economy at the end of 2026
Begins in 190 days · Jan 13, 6:00am EST
Chance
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
43.6%
▼ 0.8
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
43.6%
▼ 0.8
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
42.1%
▼ 2.1
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
42.1%
▼ 2.1
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
21.4%
▲ 6.7
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation
21.4%
▲ 6.7
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
3%
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation
3%
Market Rules
Soft landing
Resolves Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026.Outcome verified from FRED CPIAUCSL and FRED UNRATE.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 25, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesJan 13, 2027 · 8:25am EST
Projected payoutJan 13, 2027 · 10:55am EST
SeriesKXECONPATH
EventKXECONPATH-26
MarketKXECONPATH-26-SOFT
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Soft landing
Odds
0% chanceMax payout