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Economics

Global Central Banks

FedJul 29

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.50%

Above 4.25%

$87,567 vol19 more

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

MarketPays outOdds

Above 4.50%

1.73x

Above 4.25%

1.28x

Above 3.75%

1.26x

Above 4.00%

1.22x

$87,567 vol17 more

1 of 3

Unemployment in September

Above 4.1%

2.29x

Above 4.0%

1.26x

$206,535 vol14 markets

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts

1.05x

Exactly 1 cut

23.4x

$10,013,282 vol21 markets

Open Source market share on Sep 28th

Above 67.5%

1.28x

Above 70%

1.26x

$19,039 vol9 markets

How high will inflation get this year?

At least 4.5%

3.40x

At least 5.0%

5.25x

$927,542 vol6 markets

CPI in September

Above 0.5%

1.79x

Above 0.6%

4.98x

$375,281 vol14 markets

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Above 3.6%

2.66x

Above 3.5%

1.25x

$556,506 vol21 markets

Recession next year?

Yes

4.31x

No

1.25x

$507,587 vol1 market

Gas prices in the US this month?

Above 4.46

2.01x

Above 4.48

2.52x

$290,533 vol34 markets

Pennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment this year

Above 555,000 jobs

1.83x

Above 560,000 jobs

6.74x

$122,257 vol6 markets

Port of New York and New Jersey container volume this year

Above 8.9 million TEUs

1.83x

Above 8.8 million TEUs

1.46x

$172,798 vol9 markets

10Y US Treasury yield today?

5.2% or above

1.60x

5.22% or above

2.34x

$26,407 vol25 markets

Illinois nuclear electricity generation this year

Above 97.5 TWh

1.76x

Above 95.0 TWh

1.15x

$168,511 vol7 markets

EV commodity prices today

Above 1210.70

1.50x

Above 1200.70

1.06x

$4,811 vol15 markets

Average Iowa farmland value in the 2026 ISU survey

Above $11,750/acre

1.73x

Above $11,500/acre

1.44x

$15,286 vol4 markets

2Y US Treasury yield today?

4.85% or above

1.52x

4.83% or above

1.20x

$12,363 vol15 markets

Alaska diesel prices this month

Above $6.6000

1.48x

Above $6.7000

3.29x

$17,220 vol9 markets

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Above 3.5%

1.67x

Above 4.0%

2.19x

$196,110 vol9 markets

Bozeman-area housing units authorized this year

Above 1,550 units

2.52x

Above 1,400 units

1.52x

$41,120 vol6 markets

Jobs numbers this month?

Above 100,000

2.01x

Above 90,000

1.48x

$119,274 vol13 markets

How high will gas prices in California get this year?

Above $6.80

1.62x

Above $6.60

1.40x

$405,096 vol9 markets

How high will US gas prices get this year?

Above $4.80

2.05x

Above $4.60

1.46x

$1,738,199 vol13 markets