Fed Rate Cut & Hike Odds
The fed funds target range is 3.75%–4.00% after the Fed held rates steady at its October 28, 2026 meeting. At the next FOMC meeting, on December 9, 2026, Kalshi traders give a 25bp hike 77%. Below are the odds of a cut, hold or hike at every meeting Kalshi lists, and the rate path they imply.
Next FOMC meeting: Dec 9Updated today at 5:26 AM ET
Where these odds come from: Each percentage is the price of that outcome's Kalshi contract: the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
Next FOMC decisionIn 32 days
Wednesday, December 9
77%chance of a 25bp hike
- Cut >25bp1%
- Cut 25bp2%
- Hold25%
- Hike 25bp77%
- Hike >25bp2%
Fed funds target3.75%–4.00%Midpoint 3.88%
Last decisionHeld rates steadyOctober 28, 2026
Expected after December 94.05%+0.18 pts from today
Rate decision odds by meetingThe chance of each outcome at each FOMC meeting: the deeper the colour, the likelier it is, and the likeliest is in bold. The last column is the target-range midpoint the prices imply after each meeting.
Fed rate odds for every FOMC meeting through January 2028
| Meeting | Cut >25bp | Cut 25bp | Hold | Hike 25bp | Hike >25bp | Expected rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 92026· Next | 1% | 2% | 25% | 77% | 2% | 4.05%+0.18 |
| Jan 272027 | 1% | 3% | 75% | 21% | 2% | 4.10%+0.23 |
| Mar 172027 | 2% | 4% | 54% | 36% | 2% | 4.19%+0.31 |
| Apr 282027 | 5% | 11% | 57% | 12% | 2% | 4.17%+0.30 |
| Jun 92027 | 2% | 5% | 71% | 32% | 3% | 4.24%+0.36 |
| Jul 282027 | 1% | 4% | 93% | 4% | 1% | 4.24%+0.36 |
| Sep 152027 | 6% | 7% | 82% | 8% | 4% | 4.23%+0.36 |
| Oct 272027 | 2% | 6% | 91% | 3% | 3% | 4.23%+0.35 |
| Dec 82027 | 3% | 8% | 86% | 6% | 3% | 4.22%+0.35 |
| Jan 262028 | 4% | 12% | 61% | 20% | 7% | 4.26%+0.38 |
The path
Where the market expects the fed funds rate to go
Expected midpoint after each meetingToday's target range, 3.75%–4.00%
3.88%
4.05%
4.10%
4.19%
4.17%
4.24%
4.24%
4.23%
4.23%
4.22%
4.26%
Odds over time
How the odds for the December meeting have moved
- Cut 25bp
- Hold
- Hike 25bp
- Hike >25bp
More Fed marketsThe other questions traders are pricing about the Fed, from how many cuts come this year to who dissents at the next meeting.
Rate cuts, hikes, dissents and the dot plot
- Most likely
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 0 cuts98%Exactly 1 cut2%Exactly 6 cuts<1%Trade this market - Yes or no
Fed rate cut before 2027?
2%chance of yesTrade this market - Near even odds
Fed funds rate after December meeting?
Above 3.75%97%Above 4.00%78%Above 5.00%2%Trade this market - Most likely
Number of rate hikes this year?
Exactly 278%Exactly 124%At least 43%Trade this market - Near even odds
Next Fed rate hike?
Before 202888%Before July 202786%Before 202778%Trade this market - Yes or no
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
2%chance of yesTrade this market - Most likely
Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
0 cuts98%4 cuts1%1 cut1%Trade this market - Yes or no
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
2%chance of yesTrade this market - Most likely
Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?
Beth Hammack22%Lisa Cook15%Michelle Bowman14%Trade this market - Near even odds
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
Above 3.9%83%Above 4.0%71%Above 4.1%9%Trade this market
Method
How Kalshi's Fed rate odds work
Every FOMC meeting has its own Kalshi market with five contracts: a cut of more than 25bp, a 25bp cut, no change, a 25bp hike and a hike of more than 25bp. Exactly one of them settles Yes once the Fed announces its decision.A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so its price in cents reads as the implied chance in percent. Each contract is priced on its own, so a meeting can add up to a little more or less than 100%.The expected rate chains the meetings together: it starts from the midpoint of today's target range and adds each meeting's probability-weighted move in turn. It reads the path the market implies, not the most likely single outcome at any one meeting.
FAQ
Fed rate odds questions
Will the Fed cut rates in December?
Kalshi traders give a rate cut of any size 3% at the Fed's December 9, 2026 meeting (a cut of more than 25bp 1%, a 25bp cut 2%). The likeliest outcome is a 25bp hike, at 77%.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Kalshi traders give a rate hike of any size 78% at the Fed's December 9, 2026 meeting (a 25bp hike 77%, a hike of more than 25bp 2%). The likeliest outcome is a 25bp hike, at 77%.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next FOMC rate decision is on December 9, 2026. Kalshi's market on it closes at 1:59 PM ET, just before the decision is announced. Kalshi also lists the meetings on January 27, 2027, March 17, 2027, April 28, 2027.
What is the current fed funds rate?
The federal funds target range is 3.75%–4.00%, after the Fed held rates steady at its October 28, 2026 meeting.
How are Kalshi's Fed rate odds calculated?
Each FOMC meeting is a Kalshi market with one contract per outcome, from a cut of more than 25bp to a hike of more than 25bp. Each percentage is that contract's price: the midpoint of the order book where it is tight, otherwise the last trade. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so a price of 77¢ reads as a 77% implied chance. Prices are not a Kalshi forecast.
What does the expected rate column show?
The midpoint of the fed funds target range that Kalshi's prices imply after each meeting: today's midpoint plus every meeting's probability-weighted move up to that one, counting a move of more than 25bp as 50bp. It is left blank from the first meeting too thinly traded to price.