Fed decision in January 2028?
Fed decision in January 2028?
Chance
Fed maintains rate
59%
Fed maintains rate
59%
Cut >25bps
21%
▲ 6
Cut >25bps
21%
▲ 6
Hike >25bps
10%
Hike >25bps
10%
2 more
Market Rules
Fed maintains rate
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Timeline and payout
Market openOct 6, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesJan 26, 2028 · 1:59pm EST
Projected payoutJan 26, 2028 · 2:09pm EST
SeriesKXFEDDECISION
EventKXFEDDECISION-28JAN
MarketKXFEDDECISION-28JAN-H0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The FOMC meeting determines interest rate policy. Hiking rates cools down the economy and combats inflation, cutting rates stimulates growth, and keeping rates stable reflects confidence in current conditions. Fun fact: The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut was in response to the 1929 stock market crash!