US tariff revenue for 2026
US tariff revenue for 2026
Begins in 356 days · May 31, 10:00pm EDT
Chance
Above $150 billion
78%
Above $150 billion
78%
Above $200 billion
56%
Above $200 billion
56%
Above $250 billion
36%
Above $250 billion
36%
3 more
Market Rules
Above $80 billion
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $80 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
If source agency data from FRED is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 7.2(b).
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 13, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXTARIFFREVENUE
EventKXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31
MarketKXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T80
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.