After only six months on the job, Claudine Gay’s tumultuous tenure as Harvard’s President has ended. Gay’s resignation comes less than a month after her disastrous testimony before the House Committee on Education regarding campus antisemitism. It also comes amid mounting allegations of plagiarism in her doctoral dissertation and other scholarly work.

The news may come as a surprise to many who thought Gay had managed to weather the storm. But anyone watching the Kalshi market could see that trouble was brewing.

Since its launch on December 7th until today, Kalshi’s “University Presidents Ousted Before 2025” market has seen over 296,940 contracts traded, with the top trader making over a 500% return, and the top 10% of traders averaging a 132% return.

Let’s take a look at the ups and downs and how some Kalshi traders turned Gay’s misfortune into a small fortune.

Congressional Catastophy (December 7th, 2023)

Two days after the infamous congressional hearing, Kalshi launched its “Presidents Ousted” market. It included Harvard’s Claudine Gay, University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill, and MIT President Sally Kornbluth. Traders initially priced Gay’s chances of leaving between 30% and 40%.

Ackman Wants Blood, Magill Resigns (December 9th and 10th, 2023)

Just four days after her testimony, Penn President Liz Magill called it quits amid mounting criticism. A day later, thanks to accusations of plagiarism and a well-placed X post from famed Investor and Harvard alum Bill Ackman, Gay’s days seemed numbered.

Traders priced her chances of leaving as high as 96%.

The Board Backs Gay (December 11th and 12th, 2023)

Despite the mounting criticism, Gay’s fortunes took a dramatic turn. Ackman returned to X, claiming to have inside information that the Harvard Board would continue to support Gay to avoid the appearance of bowing to outside pressure.

Sure enough, the very next day, Harvard’s governing board downplayed allegations of plagiarism and proclaimed its continued support for Gay. As a result, the market plummeted, and Gay’s chances of leaving fell as low as 11% before leveling off in the low-to-mid 20s.

Plagiarism Proliferation (December 20th, 2023)

Despite the backing from the board, criticism continued to mount. Then, on December 20th, fresh allegations of plagiarism from Gay’s doctoral dissertation surfaced. Meanwhile, a congressional committee investigating the school requested all “documents and communications” related to the plagiarism claims.

Rumors Of Resignation? (December 21st - 27th, 2023)

As the Christmas holiday neared, market volume dramatically increased, and prices jumped, with a notable spike on Christmas Eve. But what caused Gay’s chances of leaving to rise to 82%?

News of unhappy donors and a negative opinion piece in the Washington Post probably didn’t help. But considering Gay purportedly decided to resign over the Christmas holiday, perhaps rumors were starting to leak out.

Goodbye To Gay (January 2nd, 2024)

As Gay started the year with a new round of plagiarism allegations (bringing the total number of accusations to 47), Gay finally decided to throw in the towel. As news of her resignation leaked, Kalshi traders quickly pounced, driving the market to 99% before Gay was officially out the door.

Ackman’s Hat Trick?

As mentioned above, Gay is the second prominent university president to be ousted in the wake of the now infamous congressional hearing (former Penn President Liz Magill being the first). Will MIT President Sally Kornbluth be next? As the X post below demonstrates, Bill Ackman certainly hopes so:

But at present, Kalshi traders are relatively optimistic about Kornbluth’s chances. Despite the ousting of Magill and Gay, Kornbluth “Yes” contracts are priced at just $0.19, giving her about a one in five chance of survival.

Do Kalshi traders have it priced right, or will Ackman go three for three in his presidential purge? Click here to make your own prediction.