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The Trump Presidency Forecast
Trump’s first 100 days
kalshi.com
Who will be pardoned?
Who will be pardoned?
Roger Ver
▲ 2
4%
Edward Snowden
▼ 2
1%
Eric Adams
1%
Steve Bannon
▼ 1
1%
Julian Assange
1%
Justin Sun
1%
Tariffs imposed?
Tariffs imposed?
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
%
chance
▲
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
JanJanJanFebApr50%62.5%75%87.5%100%
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Deport illegal immigrants?
Deport illegal immigrants?
Outcome is   yes
Trans athlete ban?
Trans athlete ban?
Outcome is   yes
Voter ID requirement?
Voter ID requirement?
Outcome is   yes
Who will join the Trump administration
kalshi.com
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
Yes
David Sacks
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
3%
▲ 2
Ben Carson
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
<1%
Ivanka Trump
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
1%
Boris Epshteyn
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
1%
▼ 2
Natalie Harp
KXTRUMPOFFICIAL
<1%
Avi Berkowitz
Trump’s Cabinet
kalshi.com
KXSECTREASURY
Yes
Scott Bessent
Secretary of the Treasury
KXSECSTATE
Yes
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
KXSECHHS
Yes
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Secretary of HHS
KXSECDEF
Yes
Pete Hegseth
Secretary of Defense
KXSECCOM
Yes
Howard Lutnick
Secretary of Commerce
KXSECAG
Yes
Pam Bondi
Attorney General
KXFBI
Yes
Kash Patel
FBI Director
KXDNI
Yes
Tulsi Gabbard
Director of National Intelligence
What will the US control?
kalshi.com
Panama Canal?
Panama Canal?
During Trump's term
▲ 1
26%
Greenland?
Greenland?
During Trump's term
28%
Canada?
Canada?
Before 2029
17%
American Renaissance
kalshi.com
Government spending cuts?
Government spending cuts?
Trump economic boom?
Trump economic boom?
72% chance 
▲ 4
No tax on tips?
No tax on tips?
62% chance 
▼ 4
Bitcoin strategic reserve?
Bitcoin strategic reserve?
45% chance 
▼ 2
Mass deportation?
Mass deportation?
67% chance 
▼ 4
Expand H1-B?
Expand H1-B?
47% chance 
Cut corporate taxes?
Cut corporate taxes?
32% chance 
▼ 1