Who will be Trump's Secretary of Commerce?

Howard Lutnick 99%

Robert Lighthizer 1%

Bill Hagerty 1%

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By Dec 31, 2026

% Chance

$547,224vol

Howard Lutnick

99%

Howard Lutnick

99%

Linda McMahon

<1%

Linda McMahon

<1%

Robert Lighthizer

<1%

Robert Lighthizer

<1%

Bill Hagerty

<1%

Bill Hagerty

<1%

Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).

Rules summary for

Howard Lutnick

If Howard Lutnick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Commerce between November 6, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

About

The Secretary of Commerce leads the Department of Commerce, providing policy guidance and advising the President on economic growth, trade, and industry. The role involves overseeing departmental functions, supervising operating units, and managing programs that support U.S. businesses and economic development. President-elect Trump has nominated Howard Lutnick for this position, but he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. (Source: Commerce.gov)

What's happening

New

Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has been nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as the Secretary of Commerce. Lutnick, a longtime supporter and fundraiser for Trump, will be responsible for carrying out Trump's aggressive tariff proposals and overseeing the Commerce Department. His nomination is subject to Senate confirmation.

What's happening

Nov 14, 2024

Linda McMahon is a top contender to lead the Department of Commerce, according to multiple sources familiar with discussions about the role. She previously served as the head of the Small Business Administration during Trump's first term and is currently co-chairing his transition team. McMahon's close relationship with Trump and her experience in business and government make her a strong candidate for the position.

What's happening

Nov 9, 2024

Linda McMahon, who served as small business administrator in Trump's first term and is a former WWE CEO, is a top contender to lead the Department of Commerce. A senior Trump official stated, "It is hers if she wants it," indicating that she is close to Trump and he trusts her. McMahon is also co-chairwoman of the pro-Trump super PAC America First Policy Action and is helping run the transition team with Trump's friend, Howard Lutnick.

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