What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts based on election outcomes, producing real-time probability estimates that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Elections

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Primaries

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

LIVE

Donavan McKinney

1.12x

Shri Thanedar

7.85x

$2,823,791 vol5 markets

Senate

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed

1.03x

Haley Stevens

31.2x

$27,266,396 vol9 markets

Primaries

MI-07 Democratic nominee?

LIVE70.9% of vote counted

William Lawrence

Bridget Brink

93.5x

$540,712 vol3 markets

Primaries

Michigan Republican Senate nominee?

LIVE

Mike Rogers

Bernadette Smith

$79,979 vol5 markets

Primaries

WA-09 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Douglas Michael Basler

1.01x

Janis Clark

93.5x

$91,610 vol7 markets

Governer

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Byron Donalds

1.03x

James Fishback

46.8x

$16,478,599 vol9 markets

Primaries

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Francesca Hong

1.16x

David Crowley

5.56x

$3,370,015 vol11 markets

Senate

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place

Haley Stevens

1.03x

Abdul El-Sayed

23.4x

$285,372 vol3 markets

Primaries

WA-05 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Nate Powell

1.46x

Carmela Conroy

1.02x

$27,534 vol13 markets

Primaries

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

LIVE

Matt Boehnke

93.5x

Amanda McKinney

$27,825 vol6 markets

Governor

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 15%

2.24x

At least 10%

1.20x

$1,952,758 vol7 markets

Primaries

WA-01 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Bryce Nickel

93.5x

James Etzkorn

93.5x

$5,065 vol7 markets

Primaries

WA-08 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Spencer Meline

1.07x

Trinh Ha

1.93x

$10,981 vol6 markets

Primaries

Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?

Marsha Blackburn

1.07x

John Rose

15.6x

$478,843 vol3 markets

Primaries

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout

Above 1.5M

1.13x

Above 1.6M

15.6x

$64,239 vol8 markets

Primaries

WA-10 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Adam Arafat

93.5x

Derek Maynes

93.5x

$9,654 vol6 markets

Primaries

MO-04 Democratic nominee?

Jordan Herrera

Ashleigh Rogers

93.5x

$80,373 vol7 markets

Primaries

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

1.34x

Gentner Drummond

3.66x

$978,753 vol7 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

Jared Moskowitz

1.09x

Oliver Larkin

8.56x

$374,508 vol3 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Peggy Flanagan

1.09x

Angie Craig

8.56x

$268,984 vol9 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Michele Tafoya

1.01x

David Hann

93.5x

$121,059 vol9 markets

Primaries

TN-05 Republican nominee?

Andy Ogles

1.22x

Charlie Hatcher

3.80x

$68,443 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara

1.73x

David Burck

3.66x

$172,671 vol15 markets

Primaries

Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee?

Jerri Green

1.01x

Tim Cyr

93.5x

$34,372 vol4 markets

Primaries

Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?

Eric Barlow

1.76x

Megan Degenfelder

2.05x

$88,022 vol5 markets

Primaries

MO-01 Republican nominee?

Paul Berry III

Andrew Jones

93.5x

$17,095 vol2 markets

Primaries

MI-10 Democratic nominee?

Christina Hines

Eric Chung

93.5x

$65,373 vol3 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Lindell

1.28x

Lisa Demuth

4.31x

$483,552 vol8 markets

Primaries

TN-09 Democratic nominee?

Justin Pearson

1.01x

DeVante Hill

93.5x

$58,146 vol4 markets

Primaries

MI-01 Democratic nominee?

Callie Barr

Kyle Blomquist

93.5x

$20,853 vol3 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

1.29x

Seth Moulton

3.96x

$276,505 vol4 markets

Governor

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Jay Collins

1.52x

James Fishback

2.66x

$201,092 vol5 markets

Primaries

Vermont Republican Governor nominee?

Phil Scott

1.01x

Joe Benning

93.5x

$49,609 vol5 markets

Primaries

WA-06 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Brian P O’Gorman

93.5x

Macy Jones

93.5x

$11,466 vol5 markets

Primaries

WA-02 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

Devin Hermanson

93.5x

Tomas Scheel

93.5x

$5,962 vol4 markets

Primaries

MI-08 Republican nominee?

Thomas J Smith

Amir Hassan

93.5x

$17,199 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-24 Democratic nominee?

Oliver Gilbert

1.40x

Shevrin Jones

3.08x

$73,849 vol4 markets

Primaries

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine

1.03x

Alexandra van Cleef

93.5x

$349,319 vol6 markets

Primaries

MO-02 Democratic nominee?

Fred Wellman

Nick Vivio

93.5x

$18,021 vol4 markets

Primaries

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Ed Case

1.48x

Jarrett Keohokalole

2.40x

$30,491 vol4 markets

Primaries

WA-07 primary: who will advance?

LIVE

David W Blomstrom

93.5x

Gwen Kirkland

93.5x

$2,976 vol4 markets

Primaries

MI-04 Democratic nominee?

Sean McCann

Diop Harris

93.5x

$2,911 vol2 markets

Primaries

TN-09 Republican nominee?

Brent Taylor

1.08x

Todd Warner

7.25x

$48,870 vol4 markets

Primaries

TN-06 Democratic nominee?

Chaney Mosley

1.14x

Lore Bergman

8.56x

$32,828 vol6 markets

Primaries

MN-05 Democratic nominee?

Ilhan Omar

1.01x

Latonya Reeves

23.4x

$21,727 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Republican nominee?

Scott Singer

1.73x

George Moraitis

3.96x

$21,660 vol5 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?

Amy Klobuchar

1.01x

Bill Gates Jr.

$487,548 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Keith Gross

1.73x

Austin Rogers

2.81x

$120,843 vol8 markets

Primaries

TN-06 Republican nominee?

Johnny Garrett

1.16x

Van Hilleary

4.73x

$33,252 vol4 markets

Primaries

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

1.31x

Elijah Manley

3.66x

$78,871 vol7 markets