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nick2
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nick2
6h
49 seems overpriced because Tulsi would 1) have to want to lose to send a message or something and 2) have exactly 49 Senators back her, not 48, 47, etc...

If Thune doesn't have the votes why would he bring it up? Again, Tulsi would have to want to be voted down. Nearly every other nominee without the votes has withdrawn through history.
How many Senators will vote for Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence?
No · 49 · 92% chance
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nick2
13h
If 22 Ds will vote against Duffy over anger at Trump admin generally that's bad news for any nominee who may need Dem support to get confirmed...
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services?
No · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · 27% chance
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nick2
Jan 27
Add Grassley
Which Senators will vote for RFK?
No · Elizabeth Warren · 99% chance
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nick2
Jan 25
I really don't get why people thought Fetterman would have voted for him. Fetterman will vote for uncontroversial Trump picks and very very maybe RFK Jr...

But he's still a Dem guys. He will take no political hit for opposing bad noms, and would need to leave the Dem party to not get primaries for this kind of vote.
Which Senators will vote for Pete Hegseth?
No · Bernie Sanders
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nick2
Jan 25
So people finally saw that Mitch, Collins and Murkowski will vote against literal sh*t. Remember folks, he can't lose one more vote after these three without picking up Dems. Confirmation hearings will be wild next week.
Who will be Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services?
No · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · 27% chance
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nick2
Jan 25
Huh, so Mitch isn't a puppet of Trump... who would have warned about this?
Which Senators will vote for RFK?
No · Elizabeth Warren · 99% chance
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nick2
Jan 25
Mitch voting Yes to let Tillis vote No would be smart move politically for Senate Rs. We’ll see…
Which Senators will vote for Pete Hegseth?
No · Bernie Sanders
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nick2
Jan 21
I'm not quite sure people betting on 1 mill + understand the scale of that change, how disruptive it would be, etc... no chance it happens even if they can do so legally (far from clear there too). Would be a big enough change that it has a negative economic impact and reduces national consumption numbers while increasing unemployment rate.
How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025?
No · More than 1,000,000 · 93% chance
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nick2
Jan 20
SBF bros clearly won't be discouraged! It will stay around 95 Cent No through noon.
Who will Biden pardon?
No · Sam Bankman-Fried
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nick2
Jan 20
If you wanted to make any further embarrassing pardons seems like you would have buried them in the 2k pardons made on Friday, before a long weekend, rather than hours before leaving office where it would get mentioned as Americans tune into the inauguration.

Doesn't mean he won't issue anymore, just that he would be stupid to wait this long.
Who will Biden pardon?
No · Sam Bankman-Fried