Which of these European leaders will leave office next?
Before 2035
% Chance
Olaf Scholz
Chancellor of Germany96%
Giorgia Meloni
Prime Minister of Italy1%
Donald Tusk
Prime Minister of Poland3%
7 more markets
Rules summary for
Olaf Scholz
If the Chancellor of Germany is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, Semafor, Axios, The Information, Fox News, Politico, Bloomberg, and AP.
An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price. Note: this event is mutually exclusive.Timeline and payout
Which of these European leaders will leave office next?
Buy Yes · Olaf ScholzChancellor of GermanyBuy
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