Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?

chance

▲

ALL

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first regulated platform in the US where you can trade on events, just like stocks. Think of it as the NYSE, but for things you relate to, care about, and understand.

Before 2030

$8,997vol

Order book

Rules summary

If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from SpaceX.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions

About

SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, aims to facilitate the colonization of Mars via the development and mass manufacturing of the Starship launch vehicle. The company plans to send a million people to Mars using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months. Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, averaging approximately 100 days.

What's happening

New

The sixth test flight of SpaceX's Starship, which occurred on November 19, 2024, marked a significant milestone in the development of the spacecraft, demonstrating its ability to perform critical maneuvers and de-orbit burns necessary for future missions to Mars. The successful test of the Raptor engine relight in space and the controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean underscore the progress made towards achieving full and rapid reusability, a crucial aspect for long-duration missions such as those to Mars. While the timeline for a manned mission to Mars remains unspecified, the advancements made in this test flight contribute to the overall readiness of the Starship for such ambitious endeavors.

Decoding the market

Case for Before 2030

'[Elon Musk] prophesised on X that the mega-rocket will reach the red planet within five years. 'Starship will be on Mars within 5 years,' Musk wrote in reply to a post on the rocket's latest test flight.' (via Mashable - 3.18.24)

Case for Not before 2030

'[Musk] believes it'll be within 10 years but he's always wrong by two or three times — how fast self-driving will be; how fast the Cybertruck will be made; how fast we will get to Mars. I think in 30 years, there'll be missions to Mars. In 10 years, it's unlikely.' (Musk biographer Walter Isaacson via BusinessInsider - 12.20.23)

People are also betting