On Saturday, Sherrone Moore was officially announced as the new head football coach of the University of Michigan, replacing Jim Harbaugh, who is taking an NFL coaching position with the Los Angeles Chargers.

In the aftermath of Michigan’s undefeated championship season, speculation was rampant about not only who would replace Harbaugh, but whether Harbaugh would actually need replacing. After all, some commentators believed he would stay, and that he was simply using interviews with NFL teams as a bargaining chip in order to secure a better contract with Michigan. They balked at the idea that he would actually walk away at the height of his team's success.

Others, including the majority of Kalshi traders, knew better and realized early on that Harbaugh was likely to go out on top and bolt for the Chargers (no pun intended), especially in light of his ongoing turmoil with the NCAA.

Let’s take a look at how Harbaugh’s departure and Moore’s ascent to head coach unfolded on Kalshi.

What Didn’t Happen

Before we look at what happened, let’s take a look at what didn’t happen.

While the market had many options for Harbaugh’s replacement, traders always had this pegged as a two-man race.

Jesse Minter, Mark Stoops, P.J. Fleck, and Harbaugh’s son Jay did not gain any traction. In fact, they were completely ignored.

LSU’s Brian Kelly and Kansas State’s Chris Klieman fared slightly better. Traders priced in both their chances at around 3%. But for the most part, they were DOA in this market.

A Two-Man Race, Or One Man’s Choice?

Right from the start, the market seemed like a two-man race between Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore. But clearly, it was all up to Harbaugh.

Judging by the numbers, Moore was a lock for the job, and it’s not hard to understand why.

He joined Michigan in 2018 as a tight ends coach and was soon promoted to offensive line coach. Later, he became co-offensive coordinator and transformed the team’s O-line into a powerhouse that was widely recognized as the best in college football. He even acted as head coach for four games while Harbaugh was suspended, which included two of the biggest games of the season against Ohio State and Penn State.

All that experience explains why, after an initial opening of $0.46, traders never put his chances below 50%.

But again, it was never about Moore. He was always a lock to get the job. But would there be an opening?

Will He Stay Or Will He Go?

The real question traders were trying to answer was whether Harbaugh wanted to leave.

Up until January 21st, traders gave Harbaugh roughly a 30-to-40% chance of staying with the Wolverines despite reports of ongoing interviews with multiple NFL teams. Even reports of a second interview with the Atlanta Falcons didn’t move the needle much.

But once news broke that he was meeting with the Chargers for a second interview, the bottom began to drop. His chances of staying in Michigan hit 10% on the afternoon of the 23rd, and never bounced back.

Well, technically that’s not true. Prices for Harbaugh “Yes” briefly shot above 40 after the press learned that Michigan offered him a 10-year, $125-million contract extension.But that spike was short-lived. News of Harbaugh’s departure for Los Angeles quickly followed suit, and yes shares quickly plummeted to $0.01.

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