Highlights

1. This week: The Tortured Poets Department
2. Our favorite new markets

This week...

I've got my money on things goin' badly...
- Singer-Songwriter and Permabear Taylor Swift

At Kalshi, our markets cover a wide variety of topics: politics, economics, weather, public health.

But sometimes, it's important to tune out the noise and focus on something that really matters... like Taylor Swift.

Scoff all you want, but the woman is an economic juggernaut.

According to estimates cited in the Washington Post, when all is said and done, Swift could bring in as much as $4.1 billion from the Eras Tour. That's more than the yearly economic output of 42 countries.

As if that wasn't enough, her newest album, The Tortured Poets Department (TTPD), is scheduled to be released this Friday. And Kalshi traders have already made a lot of predictions about it.

While you can find all of our Taylor Swift markets here, let's take a look at a few of our favorites.

How long will The Tortured Poets Department last at #1
Look, we all know that TTPD will debut at #1 on the Billboard 200. Our traders currently give it a 97% chance of happening, and to be honest, that's probably too low. You might as well be taking odds on whether the sun will come up tomorrow.

The real question is how long will its initial streak at #1 last?

Currently, Kalshi traders think three weeks or more is likely, and four or more isn't out of the question.

But the market also gives the album a one in five chance of lasting for five consecutive weeks or more.

How many (non-consecutive) weeks at #1?
If you break things down by non-consecutive weeks, the album's future looks even brighter. Kalshi traders currently forecast 7.5 weeks in the #1 spot for 2024. And the chances of it controlling the top spot for more than 12 weeks are around 30%.

TTPD wins Billboard's Album of the Year award?
It might not seem like it, but 2024 is just getting started. And with more than eight months left, anything can happen.

For example, it's possible that Lil Pump is about to drop Lil Pump 3 on an unsuspecting world, and it will turn out to be the greatest album of the year, if not the decade.

But if we're looking at the market today, Taylor's odds of winning Billboard's album of the Year are fluctuating between 60 and 70%, which is pretty good for April.

Grammy nomination for Album of the Year?
Right now, Taylor Swift is the biggest name in music. Thanks to her Eras tour, she's also officially a billionaire (per Forbes), not to mention the current Person of the Year (per Time).

It doesn't take an expert to figure out that when the reigning billionaire-queen of the music industry releases a new album, the music industry is almost certainly going to recognize it with a grammy nomination.

Yet Kalshi traders currently price TTPD's chances of an Album of the Year grammy nom at just 79%.

Maybe they think there's a 21% chance TTPD turns out to be a spoken word album endorsing Hamas?

Swift controls the entire Billboard Top 10?
An artist gaining complete control of the top 10 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 has only happened once since 1958. And guess who pulled it off?

Yep, Swift did it back in 2022.

Since then, her popularity has only grown. That's why our traders currently give her a 60% chance of pulling it off again.

Our favorite markets...

The Bitcoin Halving

Later this week or early next (exact time TBD), the fourth Bitcoin halving will occur.

What this means is that the reward paid out to Bitcoin miners (currently 6.25 BTC) will be cut in half (3.125 BTC), but the workload will remain the same. This will increase the amount of time it takes to produce new Bitcoins.

In the past, the price of Bitcoin has spiked after a halving, and many are anticipating it will do so again. However, some, like Rich Rosenblum, co-founder and president at trading firm GSR, believe conditions have changed.

"The fundamental impact of the halving is by far and away the smallest it has ever been," Rosenblum told DL News. "Not only is the change in supply half of what it was four years ago, but also volumes are 10 times what they were four years ago."

So which way will it go? If I knew the answer to that, I'd be writing this from my superyacht instead of from a Taco John's bathroom in Topeka, KS.

But if you have a strong feeling, check out our crypto markets. They're a great way to gain exposure without directly owning crypto. They're also a great way to hedge your crypto holdings.

May Starship Launch?

On March 19th, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said the company would attempt another Starship launch 'hopefully in about six weeks.' That puts her timeframe for the next launch in early May.

Well, it's mid-April. So how is that prediction looking?

Right now, Kalshi traders price the chances of a Starship launch before May 15th at just under 50%. They also price the chances of a launch before June at nearly 80%.

Of course, launching is one thing. Landing is another.

On Starship's third test, the vessel managed to make it to space, but broke apart while returning to earth. Musk has said one of the goals of the fourth test is to make a controlled landing in the ocean.

While there's no guarantee that will happen this time around, Kalshi traders price in a 90% chance that Starship will make a successful landing sometime this year.

Netflix (earnings) and chill

Wanna come over to my place and listen to the Netflix earnings call and chill?

No?

That's fine. Guests aren't really allowed at my halfway house, anyway.

But the call should be interesting, especially for anyone with money in our Q1 Subscriber growth market.

According to LSEG data, Netflix is expected to have added 5 million subscribers between January and March. And Kalshi's Q1 market forecast is 4,585,000, but it's closed as we await the results.

That said, traders are already busy making trades on Q2.

Disclosure

Kalshi’s upcoming new markets and features are not guaranteed to be live. These previews are meant to provide traders and interested observers with a sneak peek into what Kalshi is building, but they are not a promise that they will eventually be live.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.