But can they predict which board members will survive the coming purge?

“Hail to the king, baby!”

Sam Altman was reinstated as OpenAI’s CEO late last night, a move that comes just four days after his unexpected ouster. In a post on X announcing his return, the company also unveiled plans to overhaul the board of directors responsible for Altman’s firing, proving once again that if you come for the king, you best not miss.

The previous board of directors removed Altman from his post last Friday after claiming the CEO “was not consistently candid in his communications.” The surprise announcement and its vague, cryptic language didn’t sit well with many employees and investors who felt blindsided by the move. The firing also caused a media firestorm, further plunging the company into chaos.To make matters worse for the board, tech-giant Microsoft quickly swooped in with an offer to hire Altman. And when 700 OpenAI employees threatened to walk off their jobs and follow their former CEO, OpenAI was forced to make a drastic U-turn.

Cutting Through The Noise

After several days of rumors and chaos, many will view the news of Altman’s return as a stunning reversal of fortune. 

But for traders on Kalshi, the return of Altman was already a foregone conclusion.Take a look at this chart from Kalshi’s “OpenAI new CEO” market. Outside of a few momentary price dips, traders have been bullish on Altman’s return from the start.  

The price of Altman “Yes” contracts hovered near $0.60 for most of Monday evening and Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, prices spiked as high as $0.88, settling at $0.76 at the close of trading before Altman’s return was official.

The same pattern played out in other markets.

For example, in the “Sam Altman starts new company” market, traders never took the prospect seriously. “Yes” contracts briefly spiked to $0.09 on Tuesday before settling between $0.07 and $0.08 and then plummeting Wednesday morning.

On The Cutting Board

While Altman’s return seems set in stone, details on OpenAI’s board of directors are still being hashed out. But one thing is certain: retribution will be swift.

Last night, the company announced that Bret Taylor and Larry Summers would join current board member Adam D'Angelo. However, despite the announcement, some traders are skeptical that Altman will forgive and forget. As of 10:00 am on Wednesday, “Yes” contracts for D'Angelo’s departure are still trading as high as $0.17 in Kalshi’s “OpenAI board members that will leave” market.This skepticism did not carry over to board members Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley. Both went against Altman, and both are heavy favorites to depart.And Ilya Sutskever, the board member who initially approved Altman’s ouster before reversing course and calling for his return, also seems like a good candidate for the unemployment line. Although some traders think his backtracking might save him since his “No” shares are still priced near $0.20.

The Wisdom Of Crowds

In the chaos and confusion resulting from Altman’s firing, with rumors and speculation swirling, it was hard to get a clear picture of what was really happening behind the scenes.

But thanks to event trading platforms like Kalshi, a clear picture emerged, and savvy traders who cut through the noise were rewarded for their accuracy.

This stands in sharp contrast to those at OpenAI who went against Sam Altman and are about to be severely punished.

Altman’s goin' 'round takin' names

And he decides who to free and who to blame

Everybody won't be treated all the same

There'll be a golden ladder reachin' down

When Altman comes around.

-Johnny Cash