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Sam Altman starts new company before 2024?

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Nov 2023Dec 2023Dec 2023Dec 2023Feb 20250%2.5%5%7.5%10%
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Before 2024 (+0)

Order book
No


Rules summary
If Sam Altman has started a new AI organization before 2024, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Sam Altman.
The organization must be in AI-related work. A new venture in AI specialized computer chips would satisfy the Payout Criterion. The announcement must be clear that (i) an organization will be or has been formed, and (ii) that organization is doing AI-related work. For example, Altman tweeting ‘new thing coming soon’ would not be sufficient to satisfy the Payout Criterion. Similarly, and announcement that he is considering forming such an organization would not be sufficient to satisfy the Payout Criterion. Involvement in expansions or rebranding of existing projects, companies, or initiatives where Sam Altman is already involved (including his Microsoft role, which was announced on November 20, 2023) does not qualify. Similarly, Sam Altman taking on advisory roles or board memberships in new AI companies does not meet the criteria. Altman becoming CEO of an already existing AI organization would not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Nonprofits are encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Expiration value: Doesn’t start

Timeline and payout

About
Sam Altman was ousted from OpenAI, the company he cofounded and was the CEO of, on Nov 17th. He has been hired by Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI group. Many are still trying to get him back to OpenAI, something that Sam and Microsoft would be happy to see. Do you think Sam will start a new AI venture by the end of 2024?
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