Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2026 18%

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Fed rate hike

% Chance

$307,385vol

Before 2026

18%

Before 2026

18%

Before 2025

Rules summary for

Before 2026

If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.

Timeline and payout

About

The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady, with the target range for the federal funds rate remaining at 5.25% to 5.50% following the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This decision comes as inflation has fallen from its peak but remains elevated, with the Fed expecting inflation to decline further in 2025, potentially allowing for rate cuts. The Fed's stance is described as "patient," with the potential for one to two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the federal funds rate in 2024.

What's happening

New

The Federal Reserve is likely to make its next interest rate decision in January, with markets pricing in a high probability of a quarter-point hike. The Fed has been on hold since July, and recent data showing a still-strong labor market and sticky inflation has led to increased speculation about another rate increase. The central bank's next meeting is set for Jan. 30-31, with a decision on rates to be announced at the conclusion of the gathering.

News