Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first year?
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
%
chance
▲
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2025
$708,859vol
Order book
Order book
Rules summary
If Trump becomes President and the U.S. average weighted tariff is at least 6% by Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.