Series Image

Will Meta release an AI model that isn't open source this year?

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
%
chance
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
Mar 20Apr 2Apr 16Apr 29May 140%25%50%75%100%
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL

2025
$2,710vol

Order book


Rules summary
If Meta releases a large language model without releasing (and without announcing plans to release) its weights, or announces that they will do so, before Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.

Timeline and payout

Series Image
Will Meta release an AI model that isn't open source this year?
Buy Yes
Buy
Sell
Dollars
Pick a side
Contracts0
Average price
40¢
Payout if Yes wins
$0