Number of rate cuts in 2025?
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
▲ 0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2025
Chance
$8,313,087vol
1 cuts
25 bps14%
▲ 2
2 cuts
50 bps20%
▲ 1
3 cuts
75 bps18%
12 more markets
Rules summary for
2 cuts
If the Fed cuts 2 times before 2026, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). Note: this detail has been included in past iterations including the previous iteration titled, "Number of rate cuts in 2024?" Note: this event is mutually exclusive.Timeline and payout
About
After two years of multiple interest rate hikes by the FOMC, December's 2023 meeting implied that there may be a reversal going into 2024. Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That's less than what the market had been pricing, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. The central bank's post-meeting statement noted that 'inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated,' which is a change from the usual sentence simply stating that 'inflation remains elevated.'
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Number of rate cuts in 2025?
Buy Yes · 2 cuts50 bpsBuy
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