Number of tropical storms this year?
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
▲ 00
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2025
Chance
$262,739vol
Above 14
70%
▼ 6
Above 16
57%
Above 18
47%
▲ 8
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Rules summary for
Above 16
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 16 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2025 and December 01, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2025. To be clear, a storm is counted only if it is a named storm, occurs in the relevant time period (January 1, 2025 and December 01, 2025), and has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or more. Unnamed storms DO NOT count for this market. Timeline and payout
About
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above-normal due to La Niña and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures. NOAA forecasts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, which spans from June 1 to November 30. AccuWeather experts warn of explosive tropical development, especially in the second half of the season, as the El Niño pattern transitions to La Niña. Record-breaking ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are fueling concerns about a dangerous hurricane season, with temperatures currently warmer than ever recorded for this time of year.
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Number of tropical storms this year?
Buy Yes · Above 16Buy
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