Who will be the next German Chancellor?

Friedrich Merz 92%

Alice Weidel 4%

Jan van Aken/Ines Schwerdtner 1%

Live bets: Kalshi.com

ALL

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first regulated platform in the US where you can trade on events, just like stocks. Think of it as the NYSE, but for things you relate to, care about, and understand.

For the next Parliament

% Chance

$88,276vol

Friedrich Merz

92%

Friedrich Merz

92%

Alice Weidel

Jan van Aken/Ines Schwerdtner

<1%

Jan van Aken/Ines Schwerdtner

<1%

3 more markets

Rules summary for

Friedrich Merz

If the first Chancellor for the next session of Parliament is a member of CDU/CSU, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Politico.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions

What's happening

New

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that he will ask for a vote of confidence on Dec. 16, paving the way for early parliamentary elections in February. The main contenders for the chancellery include Scholz himself, who plans to run again despite his party not yet announcing his candidacy, and Friedrich Merz, the head of the Christian Democrats, who was officially nominated by his party in September. Other candidates include Robert Habeck from the Greens and Alice Weidel from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)[1][4].

What's happening

Nov 12, 2024

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and opposition lawmakers have agreed to hold an early federal election on Feb. 23. The election will determine whether Scholz remains in office or is replaced by another candidate, such as Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, or other contenders like Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party, Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany, or the Greens Leader. The outcome is uncertain, with various parties vying for power.

What's happening

Nov 8, 2024

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under pressure to call for early elections after the collapse of his three-way coalition government. Opposition CDU leader Friedrich Merz has called for a confidence vote to be held next Wednesday, which would start the countdown to early elections, and has proposed January 19 as a potential election date. Scholz, however, has urged a calm debate on the election date, emphasizing the need for sufficient time for election authorities to prepare and for parties to register and campaign.

What's happening

Nov 4, 2024

Victory for former President Donald Trump in the US election may hasten the political demise of Social Democratic Party (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz, potentially leading to an early election next year and his replacement by Christian Democrat (CDU) opposition leader Friedrich Merz. Scholz's close ties to President Joe Biden make him more vulnerable to coalition break-up if Trump wins. The leaking of a policy paper from Christian Lindner, finance minister and leader of the liberal Free Democrat (FDP) party, has increased speculation over early dissolution of parliament, which could further threaten Scholz's position.

People are also betting