Closest Senate race this year?
Closest Senate race this year?
Begins in 147 days · Nov 3, 8:00am EST
Chance
Texas
17%
▼ 3
Texas
17%
▼ 3
Ohio
12%
▼ 1
Ohio
12%
▼ 1
Michigan
11%
Michigan
11%
12 more
Market Rules
Texas
If Texas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from official state or local election division websites, the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within <elections>, official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, CNN, NBC News, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, FiveThirtyEight, and Ballotpedia.
Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Timeline and payout
Market openSep 24, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXCLOSESTSENATE
EventKXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03
MarketKXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.