State of the economy at the end of 2025?
State of the economy at the end of 2025?
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 5% inflation
Yes
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 5% inflation
Yes
Low unemployment, high inflation
Below 5% unemployment and at least 6% inflation
No
Low unemployment, high inflation
Below 5% unemployment and at least 6% inflation
No
High unemployment, low inflation
At least 6% unemployment and below 5% inflation
No
High unemployment, low inflation
At least 6% unemployment and below 5% inflation
No
Stagflation
At least 6% unemployment and at least 5% inflation
No
Stagflation
At least 6% unemployment and at least 5% inflation
No
Market Rules
Soft landing
If the BLS reports that the unemployment rate is Below 5% and inflation (measured as percent change from year ago) is below 5% in Dec 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve Economic Data and Federal Reserve Economic Data.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2025.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 13, 2025 · 12:30pm EDT
Market closedJan 13, 2026 · 8:25am EST
Paid outJan 13, 2026 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKXECONPATH
EventKXECONPATH-25
MarketKXECONPATH-25-SOFT
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The equilibrium state of the US economy is up to debate since covid started and stimulus starting flowing in. Stagflation, a challenging mix of high inflation and unemployment, poses complex challenges. A ‘soft landing' scenario is ideal, where the economy slows without a recession, this entails low inflation and low unemployment. Policymakers must balance trade-offs.