Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Odds & Predictions 2029
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh
Yes
Kevin Warsh
Yes
Judy Shelton
No
Judy Shelton
No
Kevin Hassett
No
Kevin Hassett
No
Rick Rieder
No
Rick Rieder
No
Market Rules
Kevin Warsh
The outcome is Kevin Warsh
If Kevin Warsh is the first person confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves toYes. Outcome verified from U.S. Senate.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 4, 2026 · 7:00pm EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs Otherwise, it closes by May 13, 2026 at 3:40pm EDT.
SeriesKXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM
EventKXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM
MarketKXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM-KWAR
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