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US real GDP growth in Q1 2027? Odds & Predictions

Series Image

GDP

US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?

4

Begins in 209 days · Apr 29, 7:30am EDT

Chance

Above 1.5%

61%

Above 1.5%

61%

Above 2.0%

49%

Above 2.0%

49%

Above 2.5%

42%

Above 2.5%

42%

6 more

US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?

Above 0.0%

Dollars$

Odds

95% chance

Max payout

Apr 29, 2027

$0

Loading the GDP outlook.

$95,109 volSolid: realized annual growth (BEA). Dashed: market-implied, quarterly (KXGDP) near term, annual (KXGDPYEAR) beyond. For reference.

Scenarios load with the GDP forward curve.

$95,109 volDebt rolled from CBO's Dec 2025 level (~$30.2T, pub 62105 Table 1-3): CBO's primary-deficit share of GDP (Table 1-2, interest-free) plus interest that reprices ~17% of the stock a year toward the fed funds market, over nominal GDP built from the KXGDPYEAR growth markets and the CPI inflation markets. Each line shifts the primary-deficit share; 0 = CBO. For reference.

$95,108 vol