How much will the government increase spending this year?
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
B
▲ 00
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
B
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Before 2026
Chance
$219,385vol
At least $1 billion
92%
▼ 2
At least $100 billion
83%
▲ 1
At least $500 billion
25%
At least $1 trillion
11%
Rules summary for
At least $500 billion
If government spending increases by at least $500 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
Each quarter during Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 is compared against Q4 2024. Timeline and payout
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· Consumer confidenceHow much will the government increase spending this year?
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