How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be this year?
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be this year?
Chance
Above 2
70%
▲ 5
Above 2
70%
▲ 5
Above 3
46%
▲ 8
Above 3
46%
▲ 8
Above 4
12%
▼ 12
Above 4
12%
▼ 12
5 more
Market Rules
Above 0
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 0 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 1, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesDec 1, 2026 · 11:59pm EST
Projected payoutDec 2, 2026 · 10:00am EST
SeriesKXHURCTOTMAJ
EventKXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01
MarketKXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be "very active" and potentially explosive, with AccuWeather forecasting 20-25 named storms, eight to 12 hurricanes, and four to six major hurricanes. This is significantly higher than the average season, which typically sees 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The warm ocean temperatures and the transition from an El Niño to a La Niña weather pattern are key factors contributing to this active season.