
Lateness is measured as the difference between scheduled start time and actual arrival time, rounded to the nearest minute (5:30 rounds to 6, 5:15 rounds to 5). Scheduled start time is the last officially published time. Actual start time is when the person first appears at their designated speaking position. If the person is early or exactly on time, all contracts resolve to No except the 0-minute contract. If the event is delayed for reasons beyond the person's control, lateness is measured from when they reach their position. If the person cancels or fails to appear, all contracts resolve to Yes. If the person appears at the venue but doesn't take their position, the contract resolves to No. For the purpose of this market, rounding down to any of the strike times will not count as "above." For example, if Leavitt is 5:15 minutes late, the 'above 5 minutes' contract resolves to No.