Will the midterms happen on time?
Will the midterms happen on time?
Market Rules
An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date.
Localized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being "conducted on time" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation:
- Individual polling places opening late or closing early
- Individual voting machines malfunctioning
- Localized power, weather, or connectivity outages
However, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not "conducted on time" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressional districts within that state.
An election that is postponed to, rescheduled to, conducted on, or otherwise held on a date other than the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in a state does not qualify as "conducted on time" in that state, regardless of the reason for the change of date and regardless of whether such change is lawful. This includes, without limitation, any change effected by federal legislation, executive order, presidential proclamation, federal agency directive, state law or proclamation, court order, or any other instrument. Ballots cast before the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 through early voting do not, by themselves, satisfy this criterion in a state unless ballots are also lawfully accepted on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in that state.
Special elections to fill vacancies, primary elections, and elections to non-voting delegate seats (including those representing the District of Columbia and U.S. territories) are not, by themselves, the "regularly scheduled biennial federal general election" referenced herein. The validity, fairness, certification status, or subsequent judicial treatment of any such election does not affect whether the election was "conducted on time" for purposes of this Contract; the test is whether election officials in the relevant state lawfully accepted ballots in the election on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
- Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
- Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
- Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
- All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
- Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.