Will Elon Musk leave the DOGE?
Before Jun 16, 2025 55%
Before Jan 1, 2026 84%
Before Jul 5, 2026 91%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Leave the DOGE
Chance
$905,590vol
Before May 1, 2025
Before 100 day mark7%
▲ 1
Before Jun 16, 2025
55%
▼ 2
Before Jan 1, 2026
84%
▼ 1
Before Jul 5, 2026
Before the end of DOGE91%
▼ 1
Rules summary for
Before Jun 16, 2025
If Elon Musk has left the Department of Government Efficiency before Jun 16, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.
If Elon Musk continues to work for the Department of Government Efficiency on Jun 16, 2025 this respective market will resolve No. It is our determination that the payout criterion for this market has not been met. As a result, all markets within the event will remain open until the payout criterion has been met or the expiration date passes.
The rules state that "If DOGE is renamed, restructured, or absorbed into another entity, then that does not trigger the Payout Criterion. Musk leaving his role for a successor role in a changed or absorbed version of DOGE would not be encompassed within the Payout Criterion."
Elon Musk led DOGE until Jan 20, 2025, when DOGE became a government agency as the result of an executive order. When DOGE became a government agency it was not clear what Elon Musk's role was at DOGE. Since then, the New York Times has reported that Elon Musk has left his role as a leader of DOGE for a successor role in a changed or absorbed version of DOGE.
The New York Times wrote on Feb 25th, "Amy Gleason, a former health care investment executive, is serving as the acting administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency, the government-overhaul task force imposing dramatic changes across the federal bureaucracy under the direction of Elon Musk, a White House official said on Tuesday."
The following change in role is not encompassed within the Payout Criterion because Elon Musk has left his role as a leader of DOGE for a successor role in a changed or absorbed version of DOGE.
If Mr. Musk leaves this role for one that is not related to DOGE, the market will then resolve to Yes. If Elon Musk stays in this role or leaves his current role for a different role within DOGE and stays in that one through the expiration date for a given market, the market will resolve to No on its expiration date. Timeline and payout
Will Elon Musk leave the DOGE?
Buy Yes · Before Jun 16, 2025Buy
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