New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

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Rules summary

If the Southern District of New York has found OpenAI liable for copyright infringement (or any of the counts alleged by the Times), then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Pacer.

Timeline and payout

About

In 2023, OpenAI made a significant impact by bringing artificial general intelligence to the masses. However, it has faced controversy, along with partner company Microsoft, as both are targeted in a lawsuit by the New York Times. The lawsuit claims they built their AI models by copying and using millions of the publication's articles, now directly competing with its content. The New York Times is suing for copyright infringement and demands billions in statutory and actual damages. Will this lawsuit succeed and open the door to more copyright claims against OpenAI?

Decoding the market

Case for New York Times wins

The New York Times has a solid case against Microsoft and OpenAI. Not only was the their content used to train ChatGPT without permission, but the chatbot has been known to regurgitate passages from websites owned by the times verbatim. As a result, competitors can now use a chatbot that takes copyrighted content from the New York Times to create content that competes against the New York Times. This is absurd, and will clearly cause financial harm.

Case for Not new York Times wins

The New York Times is not likely to win its lawsuit for several reasons. The most obvious is that OpenAI is protected under 'fair use,' which allows for the use of copyrighted content without permission under certain circumstances, the most relevant being reporting, scholarship, and research. Another, more speculative reason is that both parties have an interest in settling this matter out of court, since neither the New York Times or OpenAi wants to risk losing the case outright, which could set a disastrous precedent against them.

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