When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Chance
Before 2027
6.8%
â–² 0.6
Before 2027
6.8%
â–² 0.6
Before 2030
36.2%
â–² 6.1
Before 2030
36.2%
â–² 6.1
Before 2035
57%
â–² 1
Before 2035
57%
â–² 1
Before 2040
61.1%
Before 2040
61.1%
Market Rules
Before 2027
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Physical Review X, Quantum Science and Technology, Nature Physics, Science Advances, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Physical Review A, Nature Communications, the National Institute of Standards and Technology official publications, IBM Research peer-reviewed publications, Google Quantum AI peer-reviewed publications, Quantinuum peer-reviewed publications, IonQ peer-reviewed publications, MIT Technology Review, IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering, Quantum Computing Report, Science Magazine, Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Nature, Science, and Physical Review Letters.
Timeline and payout
Market openAug 14, 2025 · 4:45pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXQUANTUM
EventKXQUANTUM
MarketKXQUANTUM-27
Insider trading is prohibited
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