What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
Chance
1.5°C to 1.9°C
6%
▼ 5
1.5°C to 1.9°C
6%
▼ 5
2.0°C to 2.4°C
41%
▼ 3
2.0°C to 2.4°C
41%
▼ 3
2.5°C to 2.9°C
33%
▲ 2
2.5°C to 2.9°C
33%
▲ 2
2 more
Market Rules
Below 1.5°C
Resolves Yes if the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C.Outcome verified from NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
Timeline and payout
Market openJun 24, 2026 · 7:00pm EDT
Market closesAug 15, 2027 · 10:00am EDT
Projected payoutAug 15, 2027 · 10:30am EDT
SeriesKXRONI
EventKXRONI-27AUG
MarketKXRONI-27AUG-T15
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.