Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

$402,304 vol

ALL

Chance

Before Jan 1, 2028

26%

Before Jan 1, 2028

26%

Before Jan 1, 2029

38%

Before Jan 1, 2029

38%

Before Jan 1, 2030

45%

Before Jan 1, 2030

45%

2 more

Market Rules

Before Jul 1, 2026

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the U.S. State Department.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.

A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

Timeline and payout

Market openJan 7, 2026 · 10:00am EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the U.S. State Department issues a qualifying advisory for the specific country. Otherwise, it closes by Jun 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EDT.

SeriesKXTAIWANLVL4

EventKXTAIWANLVL4

MarketKXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01

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