Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
Chance
Before 2027
13%
▲ 1
Before 2027
13%
▲ 1
Before May 15, 2026
No
Before May 15, 2026
No
Before Jun 1, 2026
No
Before Jun 1, 2026
No
Market Rules
Before 2027
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, C-SPAN, official transcripts from Congressional hearings, the White House, Jerome Powell, the Office of Management and Budget, the Department of Justice, the Federal Register, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, and CBS.
A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
- The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination;
- Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person;
- Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person;
- The White House officially announces termination;
- Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination;
- Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
The following do NOT qualify:
- Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired;
- Expressions of dissatisfaction;
- Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation;
- Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person;
- Statements by other officials unless directed by the President;
- Unsent letters ordering termination
This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 12, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXTRYFIREPOWELL
EventKXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12
MarketKXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.