Which countries will have a recession?
United Kingdom 75%
Japan 41%
China 24%
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1M
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Before 2027
% Chance
$19,230vol
United Kingdom
75%
-1
Japan
41%
-22
China
24%
2 more markets
Rules summary for
Japan
If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF.
The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF. Timeline and payout
About
Via the IMF: 'Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces.'
Which countries will have a recession?
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