Our latest research shows widespread evidence of strong Republican momentum in the 2024 presidential election predictions–with the only exception coming in the form of Eric Adams (D), whose job security is improving as he faces the fallout of his indictment on corruption charges. 

All market prices are as of Oct 16 at noon EST. Also, it’s worth noting that volume on Kalshi has more than doubled in the past 48 hours, so the liquidity and accuracy of these markets is only increasing as time goes on.

We’ll start off with the question everyone cares the most about: Who is winning the election right now? Former President Trump extended his lead in the presidential election odds to 56% after peaking at 57% Wednesday morning. As our most liquid market by an order of magnitude, this is (theoretically, at least) the most trustworthy information on Kalshi. 

Poll aggregator 538 still favors Harris, but the rise in Trump’s Kalshi odds isn’t out of the blue. Harris is falling in key demographics (including being a shocking 40 points lower in Black men ages 18-44 compared to Obama) and has lost ground in every “Blue Wall” state over the past three weeks. NPR’s analysis of polls over the same time frame claims that all three Blue Wall states are now firmly toss-ups, and that Arizona has migrated from toss-up to leaning GOP.  

Interestingly, Trump’s odds to win the popular vote are also climbing. The odds in this market are not mispriced, as the combined odds of each candidate winning the electoral college remain in line with the presidential market, and they also correlate with Trump’s rising popular vote odds in the binary popular vote market. 

Relative to the changes in main presidential market’s odds, Trump’s chance to win the EC and popular vote came exclusively at the expense of his odds to win the EC and lose the popular vote–telling us that the hypothesis on Kalshi behind a Trump victory is rooted in belief in his widespread support rather than belief that he’ll scrape by in a key swing state or two.  

Much of his projected popular vote increase seems to be coming from North Carolina, where Trump’s chances to win the popular vote in a landslide (6% or more) skyrocketed from 3.5% one week ago to becoming the most likely of all outcomes at 19%. 

In other related markets, Trump took a commanding 4% lead in the odds to win Pennsylvania. Pairing that with taking a 1% Trump lead in Michigan, this movement tracks with the aforementioned Blue Wall slide that Harris is experiencing right now. 

To wrap it up, there’s news from an interesting non-election market. Embattled New York City Mayor Eric Adams has more than doubled his chances of retaining his job through 2024, falling from 64% to be ousted down to 28% in a week. 

Stay tuned for future research updates from our team, which will be coming out in ever higher frequency as we approach the big day. To make sure you don’t miss out, subscribe to our blog, and for press inquiries, feel free to reach out to jsuch@kalshi.com.