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zubbybadger
Jun 13, 2024
·
Strategy
Strategy: Predict the Balance of power in 2025.

Picture this, you're a liberal living in New York city. You just witnessed one of the most shocking election results of your life in which the person who you hate the most is now president again. Not only that, but the Republicans won control of the Senate, so 250 more Federalist Society judges are about to take the bench. You're DESPERATE for a win...
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zubbybadger
Jun 11, 2024
·
Strategy
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way. There is a social media account that projects the Billboard Hot 100 every week and they are extremely good at it. I would assume 2/3rds of the market participants know about this, including the market maker, so the edge from following this account is almost nonexistent. It’s not my job to name it for you. People discuss it casually and it would be...
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zubbybadger
May 5, 2024
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Strategy
Rotten Tomatoes markets are some of the most fun and most liquid markets Kalshi has on the exchange. Here’s how to play them

Before any reviews come out:
1) Do some research into the movie. I think the most important items are the director, the writer, the release date, and the cast in that order.
2) Find out when the review embargo lifts. Usually, the rule is if the movie is good, the movie stu...
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zubbybadger
May 2, 2024
·
Strategy
RCP only includes certain “major” polls in their average. These are from well known polling organizations, universities, media companies, and some firms that RCP over time has determined to be acceptable. Some traders also prefer RCP to 538 because it’s a simple average. If there are 10 polls in the average, add up the 10 numbers, divide by 10, and you’re at the number. However, there are no set g...
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zubbybadger
May 1, 2024
·
Strategy
Strategy:
1. Predict which polls are coming over the course of the week. Currently, there is 1 daily poll (Rasmussen), 1 weekly poll (Yougov/Economist), several bi-weekly-ish polls, and many monthly or close to monthly polls.

2. Learn how these polls affect the 538 average (are they adjusted up or down?) and how they are weighted. This information can be found on the polls link at the bottom of ...
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zubbybadger
11h
Booooooooooom
Who will the next Pope be?
Yes
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zubbybadger
Apr 21
Had to buy in on Pizzaballa
Who will the next Pope be?
Yes
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zubbybadger
Apr 18
Fun one!
"Sinners" Rotten Tomatoes score?
No
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zubbybadger
Apr 18
Emotional hedge
Will the NFL ban the tush push before June?
Yes
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zubbybadger
Feb 14
Would blindly bet this gets in the 30s
"Disney's Snow White" Rotten Tomatoes score?
No
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zubbybadger
Feb 7
Pretty funny that I got called a shitlib idiot eager to feed MAGA money 5 minutes before Fetterman tweeted out that he was a no. Like I said, you guys aren’t built for this.
Which Senators will vote for RFK?
No
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zubbybadger
Feb 6
You guys aren't built for this.
Which Senators will vote for RFK?
No
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zubbybadger
Jan 31
thanks Dianna Russini
Who will be the next New Orleans Saints head coach?
Yes
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zubbybadger
Jan 29
Some of the brightest minds in this market here. I'm sorry to see so many of you lose all of your money. Hopefully you can redeposit soon!
Which Senators will vote for RFK?
No
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zubbybadger
Nov 23, 2024
What on earth
Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 23, 2024?
No