Brazil bans X before July?
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Before July (+0)
$2,793vol
No
Rules summary
If Brazil cuts off access to X before Jul 1, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bloomberg.
To further clarify, the Government of Brazil must tell internet service providers to cut off access to Twitter. Timeline and payout
About
Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly Twitter), is under criminal investigation in Brazil for refusing to comply with a court order to ban certain users from the platform. The order, issued by Justice Alexandre de Moraes of Brazil's Supreme Court, is part of an ongoing investigation into "digital militias" accused of spreading misinformation and inciting crime during the tenure of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Musk has publicly criticized the order, calling it "aggressive censorship" and vowing to publish the court's decisions, which have been kept confidential.
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Decoding the market
Case for Before July
'This judge has applied massive fines, threatened to arrest our employees and cut off access to X in Brazil.' (Elon Musk 4.6.24)
Case for Not before July
'I suspect we will see a cold war with some performative outbursts and a tacit agreement to avoid the platform's closure.' (Bloomberg LATAM Opinion columnist JP Spinetto - 4.10.24)
