EV market share in 2030?
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6H
1D
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ALL
Jan 2030
Chance
$3,340vol
Above 10%
95%
Above 20%
96%
Above 30%
Expectation60%
Above 50%
40%
▲ 15
Rules summary for
Above 50%
If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 50% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Argonne National Laboratory.
Timeline and payout
About
The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing demand for alternative fuel vehicles and supportive government policies. By 2030, the global EV market is projected to reach $1,579.10 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% from 2023 to 2030. Governments worldwide are implementing strict emission regulations and offering incentives to boost EV adoption, which is expected to continue driving market growth.
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Decoding the market
Case for Above 20%
'EV sales should grow to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expect roughly 3.4% in 2021. This would also see sales increase to 4.7 million from a little more than 500,000 in 2021.' (via EVAdoption.com - 4.12.24)
Case for Above 30%
'Annual sales of EVs will be nearly 5.6 million in 2030, reaching more than 32 percent of annual light-duty vehicle sales in 2030. Compared to the 2018 forecast, this is an increase of more than 1.8 million in annual sales in 2030.' (via EEI.org - 4.12.24)
EV market share in 2030?
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