2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Chance

At least 4bps

--%

At least 6bps

--%

At least 8bps

--%

7 more

Market Rules

At least 4bps

Resolves Yes if the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps.Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.

The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day. The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value - July 28, 2026 value| × 100. For example, a move from 4.05% to 4.17% equals 12 basis points.

Note: this event is directional.

Timeline and payout

Market openJun 21, 2026 · 10:00am EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. Otherwise, it closes by Jul 29, 2026 at 4:14pm EDT.

SeriesKX2YFOMC

EventKX2YFOMC-26JUL29

MarketKX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T4

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.