Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?
Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?
Order book
Yes
Market Rules
Before 2027
Resolves Yes if Anthropic releases a model it designates as requiring AI Safety Level 3 before Jan 1, 2027.Outcome verified from Anthropic.
Clarification (6/6/25 at 3:15am ET): The rules of this market state, “Anthropic has released an AI model that it identifies as having reached AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027.”
Anthropic did use AI Safety Level (ASL-3) Deployment and Security Standards for Claude Opus 4, which was recently released to the public. However, it also noted, “we have not yet determined whether Claude Opus 4 has definitively passed the Capabilities Threshold that requires ASL-3 protections.”
The market will remain open until Anthropic releases a model it claims requires such standards, including potentially the already released Claude Opus 4.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 19, 2024 · 10:00am EST
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXASL3
EventKXASL3-27
MarketKXASL3-27
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Before 2027
Odds
0% chanceMax payout